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Key findings

  • Business activity at small and medium-sized businesses fell marginally in September
  • Employment and new business continued to rise
  • Inflationary pressures softened in comparison to first half of 2024
  • Year-ahead output growth expectations remain upbeat

 

Activity at small and medium-sized businesses fell marginally in September, while new work and employment numbers continued to grow, the latest NatWest SME Growth Tracker has found.

The NatWest UK SME Business Activity Index – which measures month-on-month changes in the combined output of SMEs - scored 49.3 in September, down from 50.3 in August. The latest reading was the lowest since October 2023 and signalled a marginal drop in SME output levels. This contrasted with solid growth across the UK private sector as a whole in September (index at 53.0). A reading of over 50.0 indicates growth, while a reading under 50.0 suggests contraction.

Business activity differed widely by sector in September, with the drop in overall SME output largely driven by the service economy. Construction SMEs bucked the trend, with output growth accelerating to its fastest rate since January. These firms saw the strongest rise in new business in two-and-a-half years, in part due to a post-election rebound in clients’ willingness to spend.

Despite the slight fall in business activity, there were positive signs from the survey’s forward-looking indicators as new order volumes expanded marginally and output growth expectations for the next 12 month were relatively upbeat. Job creation remained a bright spot and was maintained for the ninth consecutive month. And while strong margin pressures persisted in September, overall input price inflation was slightly lower than seen in the first half of the year.

While the overall degree of business confidence slipped to a 10-month low, SMEs remained upbeat about their growth prospects for the year ahead. Optimism was attributed to hopes of a sustained improvement in UK economic conditions, alongside a tailwind to business and consumer spending from lower borrowing costs.

 

Sebastian Burnside, NatWest’s Chief Economist said:

“Business activity among SMEs has cooled in line with the change of season. However, this slight dip in activity shouldn’t hide what are strong signs of underlying good health. Businesses have maintained a strong streak in new orders for 10 months running and employment has been a strong point for SMEs all year. And while many businesses report their margins remain tight, inflationary pressures have softened since the start of the year.”

 

James Holian, Head of Business Banking at NatWest, said:

“Above all September’s survey shows how variable the experience of SMEs is depending on which sector they operate in. Construction firms have just recorded their strongest rise in new work for two-and-a-half years, while services companies have recorded their fastest fall in activity in a year.

“Across the UK, NatWest Group is helping more businesses get started than any other bank, so we have a deep understanding of the local economies in which they operate as well as the opportunities and challenges they face. We’re committed to supporting businesses to thrive and are confident that with our help, businesses can maintain a positive outlook as we move towards the final quarter of this year.”

NatWest UK SME Growth Tracker

Download the NatWest UK SME Growth Tracker for October

Download report

Notes to editors

 

About the NatWest SME Growth Tracker

The NatWest SME Growth Tracker is a quarterly report, designed to monitor business performance at UK enterprises with 1-249 employees. Results are compiled from responses to S&P Global UK Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®) surveys.  The panel of around 850 small and medium-sized enterprises is stratified by detailed sector, based on contributions to GDP.

Survey responses are collected by S&P Global in the second half of each month and indicate the direction of change compared to the previous month. A diffusion index is calculated for each survey variable. The index is the sum of the percentage of ‘higher’ responses and half the percentage of ‘unchanged’ responses.

Indices vary between 0 and 100, with a reading above 50 indicating an overall increase compared to the previous month, and below 50 an overall decrease. The indices are then seasonally adjusted. Indices are compiled for a range of survey variables, including business activity, new orders, employment, input costs, prices charged, suppliers' delivery times and future activity.

The SME Growth Tracker data for September were collected 12 – 27 September 2024. Historical data are available from January 1998 for the headline All-Sector Index. Manufacturing data are available from January 1992, Services data from July 1996 and Construction data from April 1997.

 

For further information on the PMI survey methodology, please contact economics@spglobal.com.

 

For more information on this press release, please contact Lucy Chislett, Media Relations Manager on 0797486900 or lucy.chislett@natwest.com

The information contained in our press releases is intended solely for journalists and media and should not be used by consumers to make financial decisions. Terms and conditions apply to any products or services mentioned in our press releases.

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